Heuristics and Biases in the Democratic Primary

Yoel and Mickey take a deep dive into the Democratic Primary field, asking what the field of judgment and decision making can teach us about the large and diverse field of Democratic candidates. Why is Biden leading in the polls? Is Elizabeth Warren being helped by Kamala Harris? Why isn’t Biden hurt by progressives’ deep dislike of him? What should we make of one-issue voters?

Bonus: Yoel makes a fearless and consequential prediction. Who will make him stick to his word?

• Miller High Life • RateBeer
• Following outcry, American Psychological Association “refocuses” takedown notice program – Retraction Watch
• 2020 Presidential Candidates | The New York Times
• The recognition heuristic: A decade of research — The recognition heuristic exploits the basic psychological capacity for recognition in order to make inferences about unknown quantities in the world
• The Adaptive Decision Maker: John W. Payne, James R. Bettman, Eric J. Johnson: 9780521425261: Books - Amazon.ca — The Adaptive Decision Maker argues that people use a variety of strategies to make judgments and choices. The authors introduce a model that shows how decision makers which strategy a person will use in a given situation.
• Decoy effect - Wikipedia — In marketing, the decoy effect (or attraction effect or asymmetric dominance effect) is the phenomenon whereby consumers will tend to have a specific change in preference between two options when also presented with a third option that is asymmetrically dominated.
• Choice Based on Reasons: The Case of Attraction and Compromise Effects on JSTOR — Choice Based on Reasons: The Case of Attraction and Compromise Effects